Thursday, October 29, 2026

36% of NZ SMEs use AI, but the smallest firms trail by 34 points. Here is a four-question test for choosing your first AI job, and a 30-day plan.

It's 11pm on a Thursday and the decision is still sitting open on your laptop. Hire the second salesperson, or not. Sign the five-year lease, or wait another quarter. Finally let go of the client who pays late and shouts first. You've run the numbers four times and you still haven't clicked save.

If you're stuck on a decision like that, the fastest way through it isn't more analysis. It's a fifteen-minute exercise called a premortem, run before you commit, not after you're already regretting it.

Nine times out of ten, what looks like "I need more information" is actually "I'm scared of being wrong, and gathering data feels safer than deciding." You're not lazy and you're not indecisive. You're human, and you're about to make the decision anyway — this just makes sure you make it with your eyes open.

Why You're Not Lazy, You're Scared

Here's the villain, and it isn't you: the idea that a confident owner decides fast and a careful one decides slow, so if you're stuck, something's wrong with you. That's backwards. A 2026 Bluevine survey of US small business owners found 68% had delayed or avoided a major decision — hiring, expanding, a big commitment — specifically from fear of getting it wrong. You are nowhere near alone on that laptop at 11pm.

I used to do this with words instead of business decisions. Early on I'd redraft the same email a dozen times before sending it, chasing a version with no risk in it. It doesn't exist. The work doesn't improve in your head — it improves once it's out in the world and you can react to what actually happens. The lesson cost me time I didn't get back: it can't work for you until it's in the public domain. A decision is the same. The fear doesn't go away before you decide. You decide, and then you deal with what the fear was actually pointing at.

The Premortem: Fifteen Minutes, Before You Commit

Psychologist Gary Klein published a simple fix for this in the Harvard Business Review back in 2007, called a project premortem. Instead of asking "what could go wrong?" — which your brain will wave off with "it'll probably be fine" — you assume the decision has already failed, a year from now, and work backwards from there. It feels uncomfortable. That discomfort is the whole point; it's what gets the real risks out of your gut and onto paper.

  • Declare it failed. Write one sentence: "It's twelve months from now and this decision was a mistake."
  • List every reason, fast. Give yourself five minutes. No editing, no "that's unlikely" — just every way it could have gone wrong.
  • Rank by damage, not just odds. A rare risk that sinks the business matters more than a common one you'd shrug off.
  • Fix your top two before you sign anything. Build the guardrail now, while it's still cheap, not after it's already gone wrong.

"Kevin's knowledge and intellect on all things business — no matter what industry it is — he just seems to find gems that you can focus on. I catch up with Kevin once a week and it is definitely the highlight of my week. He just sees different opportunities so clearly. I would not have considered the B2C market as an opportunity before working with Kevin and now it is a major focus for us. He has opened up so many new opportunities for us."

— John Roberts, Co-owner and COO, Oragene

Why Most Owners Run It Once, Then Shelve It

You can do a premortem solo, and it's worth doing even then. But the real gap isn't the framework — it's that most owners run it once, in their own head, with their own blind spots doing the marking. You already know the two or three risks you're quietly hoping nobody asks about. That's exactly where an outside pair of eyes earns its keep: someone who's sat across the table from a hundred decisions like yours and will ask the question you're avoiding, not just nod along with the plan you've already half-decided on.

This isn't for you if what you actually want is someone to make the call for you, or tell you the "right" answer exists and you just haven't found it yet. It doesn't. What you can get is a sharper, faster, better-tested version of your own judgement — which, once you trust it, is worth more than a hundred more hours of research ever will be.

Key Takeaways

  • Name the real blocker. Decision paralysis is usually fear of being wrong, not a lack of data.
  • Run the premortem first. Declare the decision failed, list every reason why, before you commit.
  • Rank by damage. Fix the risks that would sink you, not just the ones that are easy to picture.
  • Decide, then adjust. Clarity beats certainty — certainty was never on offer.

You already know more about this decision than anyone else in the room. The premortem doesn't hand you certainty — nobody can promise you that. It hands you clarity, and clarity is what turns a decision you've been dreading into one you're actually ready to make.

If the big decision has been sitting open on your laptop for weeks, that's the conversation to have before you spend another dollar on it.

Sunday, October 04, 2026

A third of small business owners are absorbing this year's cost increases out of their own pocket instead of raising prices. Here's the three-step Margin Audit that turns that guess into a safe, thirty-day pricing test.

Sunday, October 04, 2026

Before you approve the next hire, run the revenue-per-employee test. Some of the growth you are trying to buy with headcount is sitting in tasks AI can already take off the list.

Sunday, October 04, 2026

Owner-dependent businesses sell for roughly half the multiple of businesses that run without them. Dan Sullivan's Who Not How question is the simplest fix most owners never try.

Sunday, October 04, 2026

The tasks only one person in your business can do are a hidden cost waiting to land. Here is how to clear the backlog in an afternoon using a recorder instead of a blank page.

Sunday, October 04, 2026

Chasing every lead in the run to year end is how you end up delivering the deals that cost you the most. Here is the Right-Fit Filter that catches a bad deal before you quote it.

Sunday, October 04, 2026

Big brands never approve a campaign on gut feel alone. Here is the cheap, 48-hour pretest SME owners can run on any piece of marketing before a single dollar goes to media.

Sunday, October 04, 2026

There is no single best business coach in New Zealand, only the best fit for your stage and your problem. Here are six criteria, an honest map of the NZ options, and where Kevin D'Ambros-Smith fits.

Sunday, October 04, 2026

Most SME strategies are really just revenue wishlists with no diagnosis behind them. Here is the three-part test that separates a real strategy from a wish, and what to fix first if yours fails it.

Wednesday, September 30, 2026

94% of small businesses using AI across multiple functions have cut spending on marketing, data and bookkeeping, and they are more confident than ever. Here is the three-question audit to run before you cut judgment along with the invoice.

Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Chasing a poor-fit customer to hit a year-end number rarely pays off. Here is the Right-Fit Growth Filter SME owners use before saying yes.

Wednesday, September 30, 2026

High satisfaction with your business coach does not guarantee progress. Here is the yearly Re-Contracting Conversation that keeps coaching sharp.

Wednesday, September 30, 2026

We'll sort it in the new year is quietly stalling more small businesses than any competitor. Here is the Now-or-January Test that fixes it.

Wednesday, September 30, 2026

A 10 percent discount can need 46 percent more sales volume just to break even. Here is the Quota-Protection Plan for small business sales teams.

Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Referred customers buy four times more often, yet most happy customers are never asked. Here is the Post-Purchase Sequence that fixes it.

Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Your best quarter can hide the same problems as your worst one. Here is the five-step Success Audit SME owners use to pressure-test growth before it plateaus.