Tuesday, October 27, 2026

A third of US small business owners say they don't know whether they have the tools — AI included — to grow next year. That's not a confidence problem, it's a visibility one, and it's fixable in an afternoon.

Every November, a familiar ritual starts in boardrooms and kitchen-table offices across New Zealand and the US: next year's number gets set. Usually it's last year's revenue plus a percentage that felt ambitious in the moment. A widely cited UK survey of business leaders found 44% had missed their own earnings target at some point, and almost half missed it in the very first quarter of the year. If that's been your pattern too, the problem almost certainly isn't effort — it's how the target got built in the first place.

After founding or co-founding nine companies and coaching more than 200 businesses one-on-one, Kevin has never once seen a team miss a target because they didn't try hard enough. He has seen plenty miss because the target was fiction from the day it was written down.

The Target That Was Never Really a Plan

Here's the enemy: percentage-on-last-year planning. Take this year's revenue, add 15% or 20% because that number sounds motivating in a meeting, and call it the plan. It isn't a plan — it's an extrapolation, and extrapolations don't account for a market that's shifted, a team that's already at capacity, or an owner who's quietly run out of hours in the week.

A 2023 survey conducted by the revenue-intelligence firm Gong, reported in Startups Magazine (UK), found that more than half of business leaders said accurate forecasting mattered more because of economic uncertainty — yet most were still building those forecasts in a spreadsheet, dragging last year's line forward. The target wasn't wrong because people didn't work hard enough to hit it. It was wrong on the day it was set.

The Three Numbers That Actually Set a Realistic Target

Before you write down a number for 2027, run it past three checks instead of one gut feel:

  • Capacity ceiling — what could your current team, systems and cash actually deliver flat out, with no new hires and no new tools? That's your floor, not your target.
  • Market reality check — is your category growing, flat or shrinking right now, and is your plan riding that current or swimming against it? A 20% target in a shrinking category is a different bet than a 20% target in a growing one.
  • Owner bandwidth — how many of next year's hours are already spoken for by you personally? If the plan depends on you doing more of everything, it's not a growth plan — it's a wish with a deadline.

"I have grown my business 5x since working with Kevin. Everything Kevin told me to do was the complete opposite of what I had been doing. Working with Kevin has truly been a complete game changer."

— Richard, Chem Suppliers

Why Owners Keep Building the Same Broken Plan

Most owners already sense their target is soft. They build it the old way anyway, because the three checks above take an honest look at the business, and an honest look takes someone outside the business to run it properly. Inside your own head, the capacity ceiling always looks a little higher and the market always looks a little kinder than it really is. That's not a character flaw — it's just what happens when the person setting the target is the same person who has to live with the consequences of getting it wrong.

This is the exact gap a coach closes: someone in the room who has no incentive to flatter your forecast, and thirty years of watching which numbers hold up and which ones quietly unravel by March.

Key Takeaways

  • Replace "last year plus a percentage" with a target built on capacity, market direction and owner bandwidth.
  • Treat your capacity ceiling as the floor of the conversation, not an aspirational stretch.
  • Check whether your plan is riding your category's current or swimming against it before you commit to a number.
  • Bring in an outside, unflattering view before you finalise next year's target — not after it's already missed.

If your 2027 target is just last year's number with a percentage bolted on, Kevin will help you fix that first.

Be the owner who starts 2027 with a target built on real numbers, not a hopeful percentage.

Sunday, October 18, 2026

ActionCOACH, Business Blueprint, government-backed advice and independent coaches compared fairly for Australian owners, with best-for and not-ideal-if for each.

Sunday, October 18, 2026

An executive coach develops you as a leader. A business coach works on the business itself. Here is how to tell which one an NZ SME owner needs before paying for either.

Sunday, October 18, 2026

Most SME owners can tell you their revenue. Almost none can tell you which customers are actually making them a profit. New 2026 research shows why that gap is the real growth problem, and a three-step fix.

Sunday, October 18, 2026

The average small business gets 27 percent of revenue from one customer. Here is the three-question check that tells you whether your growth is real, or just concentration in disguise.

Sunday, October 18, 2026

Coaching can return seven times its cost, PwC research suggests, but rarely from where owners expect. Here is where the real ROI on a business coach actually shows up.

Sunday, October 18, 2026

Gallup found managers think they give weekly feedback, their teams say otherwise. See why your business systems depend on a conversation most owners are avoiding.

Sunday, October 18, 2026

56 percent of stalled B2B deals end in no decision, not a lost sale to a competitor. Here is why your prospects go quiet after saying yes, and the direct question that gets them talking again.

Sunday, October 18, 2026

The median landing page converts at 6.6 percent, and most SME websites never get close. Here is what the top quartile actually does differently, and why fixing it beats spending more on ads.

Sunday, October 18, 2026

Most growth plans start with last year's number plus a guess. Here is the three-number market-sizing check that separates a real plan from a wish list.

Saturday, October 17, 2026

Nearly 8 in 10 small business owners say long-term planning feels harder than ever. The usual fix, a better template, isn't the one that works — here's the exercise that fixes it before you build the plan.

Saturday, October 17, 2026

NZ retail lifted productivity 9.1% without adding hours, while national output per employee fell. Here's how to grow revenue before you grow headcount.

Saturday, October 17, 2026

Most owners expect a coach to fix things in week one. Here's what actually happens in the first 90 days, and why that structure is the real breakthrough.

Friday, October 16, 2026

A 2026 Bain survey found fewer than half of CEOs believe their company can execute fast enough, even with full teams and budgets behind them. Here is the weekly rhythm that turns a good plan into tracked progress for an owner running the show solo.

Friday, October 16, 2026

A bank survey found 98% of small business owners do not know their company's value. Most shrug because they are not selling. That is the mistake: the work that lifts value is the same work that lifts growth right now.

Friday, October 16, 2026

Global surveys put client satisfaction with coaching at 95 percent good or excellent. The unhappy minority almost always skipped the same three checks before they signed. Here is what to check before you do.