Monday, November 09, 2026

US owners lose 33 working days a year to financial stress (Xero, 2026). Sean Ellis's North Star Metric shows SME owners how to grow without it costing their evenings.

FMCG category value grew 3.4% across Western Europe in 2025. Ask most brand owners and they'll tell you it was a solid year. Ask NielsenIQ what actually drove that growth, and the story changes: innovation — new products, new formats, new flavours — fell 5.8% in unit volume over the same 12 months. The growth was real. It just wasn't coming from anything new. It was coming from price.

If you've launched a product this year and quietly wondered why the boardroom excitement never showed up in the sell-through numbers, this is why. FMCG brands are innovating harder than ever and moving fewer new units than ever. That's not bad luck. It's a symptom, and every SME and mid-market FMCG owner needs to look at it before the next launch goes into production.

The Innovation Illusion: Why “New” Doesn't Mean “Growth” Anymore

Not every category told the same story in 2025. NielsenIQ's analysis found real bright spots: Confectionery and Snacks, Personal Care and Home Care all kept growing on genuine new demand. Food and Beverage — by far the largest category — dragged the overall number down. Shoppers there simply stopped rewarding “new” the way they used to.

NIQ's own language for it is blunt: “good enough is no longer good enough.” A slightly different flavour, a slightly smaller pack, a slightly greener label — none of that reads as innovation to a shopper anymore. It reads as noise. Retailers noticed first. NIQ found private label expanding its own innovation specifically in Non-Alcoholic Beverages, Confectionery and Snacks and Food — the exact categories where branded innovation was weakest — filling the relevance gap brand manufacturers left behind.

This is the real enemy here. Not the economy, not private label, not the consumer. It's what Kevin calls Innovation Theatre: launching product to look innovative, without doing the harder work of proving anyone actually wants it more than what's already on shelf.

The Real Innovation Test — Run This Before Your Next Launch

Kevin spent years in rooms at DDB, Ogilvy and Saatchi and Saatchi deciding what got called “innovation” for brands like McDonald's, Nestlé, Unilever and Heineken, and what got killed before it reached shelf. The launches that survived never asked “is it new?” They ran three harder checks first. It's the same structure he now builds into the Simple-Growth System™ for the SME owners he coaches.

1. The Relevance Check. Is this genuinely more relevant to a real, named customer problem — or just different for the sake of being different? If you can't name the specific shopper and the specific reason they'll pay more, it's not relevance, it's decoration.

2. The Cannibalization Check. Is this launch stealing sales from your own existing full-price range, or finding real incremental demand? Run the numbers on your last launch's first 90 days against the product line it sits beside — not just total category sales.

3. The Price Independence Check. Strip out any price increase you've taken this year. Does the unit volume trend still say yes? If the only thing propping up “growth” is the price on the shelf tag, you haven't launched a product. You've relabelled inflation.

Most launches fail all three checks. They get built anyway because someone above the person building it needed “news” for the quarter.

“Kevin, you distilled business, marketing and sales strategy into powerful simple concepts and actions with real life stories of your start-up business and corporate life. You walk the talk with empathy and passion. Feedback has been off the charts.”

— Nikki, MahiTahi / Colab (11 Food and Beverage Companies)

The Execution Gap: Why Owners Keep Launching Anyway

Most FMCG and SME owners Kevin works with already sense, deep down, which of their last three launches were real growth and which were just repackaged price rises. The gap isn't knowledge. It's structure. Three things are usually missing:

  • No formal test-before-scale process. The product goes from concept to full production run without ever being checked against real, incremental sell-through data.
  • No accountability to kill a weak launch early. Once a product is in the range, sunk cost keeps it there long after the numbers have said no.
  • The wrong sequence. The SKU gets built, then the demand gets hoped for — instead of the demand being proven first, and the SKU built to meet it.

This is exactly where a structured advisory relationship earns its place — not as a pitch, but as the missing accountability layer between “we should probably check this” and actually checking it, every single time, before the production line runs.

Quick Wins: Three Things to Check This Week

1. Pull the unit volume — not dollar value — on your last three product launches, net of any price increase taken since.

2. Ask your sales team, honestly: which of your “new” products would still sell at full price, with zero promotion behind it?

3. Run the Real Innovation Test on whatever's next in your pipeline, before it goes into production — not after.

Key Takeaways

  • FMCG category value can rise while real innovation volume falls at the same time — check which one is actually driving your numbers.
  • NIQ found Western European FMCG innovation lost 5.8% of unit volume in 2025, even as total category value rose 3.4% on price.
  • “Good enough” no longer earns a premium — shoppers now demand visible, specific relevance from anything labelled new.
  • Private label retailers are already filling the relevance gap branded manufacturers leave behind — treat that as competitive intelligence, not background noise.
  • Run the Real Innovation Test — Relevance, Cannibalization, Price Independence — before scaling any new SKU, not after it's already in market.

If your last “successful” launch grew revenue but not units, it's worth finding out which of the three checks it would have failed — before your next production run repeats it.

...and you become the owner whose next launch earns its place on the shelf.

Monday, October 19, 2026

A strong December can feel like proof you're growing. It can also be the reason nobody builds the pipeline that carries January. Here's the three-question check to run now.

Monday, October 19, 2026

A good coach doesn't start with your goals. They start with three numbers most owners can't answer on the spot, and that gap tells them exactly where to begin.

Monday, October 19, 2026

Most SME owners have tried an AI tool this year. Few can say, in hours, what it actually saved them. Here's the test that tells the difference, and the first step to take.

Monday, October 19, 2026

By the time a prospect calls you, they've already done most of their own research. Here's the sales approach built for exactly that moment, and why most SME pitches skip it.

Monday, October 19, 2026

Social platforms can change the rules on your reach overnight. Here's the one marketing channel no algorithm can take away from you, and why most SME owners still starve it.

Monday, October 19, 2026

A new survey says 53% of small business owners are stuck on finding customers. Here's the one-question test that finds out whether that's really your constraint, or just the easiest one to blame.

Sunday, October 18, 2026

ActionCOACH, Business Blueprint, government-backed advice and independent coaches compared fairly for Australian owners, with best-for and not-ideal-if for each.

Sunday, October 18, 2026

An executive coach develops you as a leader. A business coach works on the business itself. Here is how to tell which one an NZ SME owner needs before paying for either.

Sunday, October 18, 2026

Most SME owners can tell you their revenue. Almost none can tell you which customers are actually making them a profit. New 2026 research shows why that gap is the real growth problem, and a three-step fix.

Sunday, October 18, 2026

The average small business gets 27 percent of revenue from one customer. Here is the three-question check that tells you whether your growth is real, or just concentration in disguise.

Sunday, October 18, 2026

Coaching can return seven times its cost, PwC research suggests, but rarely from where owners expect. Here is where the real ROI on a business coach actually shows up.

Sunday, October 18, 2026

Gallup found managers think they give weekly feedback, their teams say otherwise. See why your business systems depend on a conversation most owners are avoiding.

Sunday, October 18, 2026

56 percent of stalled B2B deals end in no decision, not a lost sale to a competitor. Here is why your prospects go quiet after saying yes, and the direct question that gets them talking again.

Sunday, October 18, 2026

The median landing page converts at 6.6 percent, and most SME websites never get close. Here is what the top quartile actually does differently, and why fixing it beats spending more on ads.

Sunday, October 18, 2026

Most growth plans start with last year's number plus a guess. Here is the three-number market-sizing check that separates a real plan from a wish list.