Friday, October 30, 2026

One client had 123 customers. Eight of them delivered 42% of total revenue. Here's the A-B-C-D grading system that tells you which customers actually matter.

It's 11pm on a Thursday and the decision is still sitting open on your laptop. Hire the second salesperson, or not. Sign the five-year lease, or wait another quarter. Finally let go of the client who pays late and shouts first. You've run the numbers four times and you still haven't clicked save.

If you're stuck on a decision like that, the fastest way through it isn't more analysis. It's a fifteen-minute exercise called a premortem, run before you commit, not after you're already regretting it.

Nine times out of ten, what looks like "I need more information" is actually "I'm scared of being wrong, and gathering data feels safer than deciding." You're not lazy and you're not indecisive. You're human, and you're about to make the decision anyway — this just makes sure you make it with your eyes open.

Why You're Not Lazy, You're Scared

Here's the villain, and it isn't you: the idea that a confident owner decides fast and a careful one decides slow, so if you're stuck, something's wrong with you. That's backwards. A 2026 Bluevine survey of US small business owners found 68% had delayed or avoided a major decision — hiring, expanding, a big commitment — specifically from fear of getting it wrong. You are nowhere near alone on that laptop at 11pm.

I used to do this with words instead of business decisions. Early on I'd redraft the same email a dozen times before sending it, chasing a version with no risk in it. It doesn't exist. The work doesn't improve in your head — it improves once it's out in the world and you can react to what actually happens. The lesson cost me time I didn't get back: it can't work for you until it's in the public domain. A decision is the same. The fear doesn't go away before you decide. You decide, and then you deal with what the fear was actually pointing at.

The Premortem: Fifteen Minutes, Before You Commit

Psychologist Gary Klein published a simple fix for this in the Harvard Business Review back in 2007, called a project premortem. Instead of asking "what could go wrong?" — which your brain will wave off with "it'll probably be fine" — you assume the decision has already failed, a year from now, and work backwards from there. It feels uncomfortable. That discomfort is the whole point; it's what gets the real risks out of your gut and onto paper.

  • Declare it failed. Write one sentence: "It's twelve months from now and this decision was a mistake."
  • List every reason, fast. Give yourself five minutes. No editing, no "that's unlikely" — just every way it could have gone wrong.
  • Rank by damage, not just odds. A rare risk that sinks the business matters more than a common one you'd shrug off.
  • Fix your top two before you sign anything. Build the guardrail now, while it's still cheap, not after it's already gone wrong.

"Kevin's knowledge and intellect on all things business — no matter what industry it is — he just seems to find gems that you can focus on. I catch up with Kevin once a week and it is definitely the highlight of my week. He just sees different opportunities so clearly. I would not have considered the B2C market as an opportunity before working with Kevin and now it is a major focus for us. He has opened up so many new opportunities for us."

— John Roberts, Co-owner and COO, Oragene

Why Most Owners Run It Once, Then Shelve It

You can do a premortem solo, and it's worth doing even then. But the real gap isn't the framework — it's that most owners run it once, in their own head, with their own blind spots doing the marking. You already know the two or three risks you're quietly hoping nobody asks about. That's exactly where an outside pair of eyes earns its keep: someone who's sat across the table from a hundred decisions like yours and will ask the question you're avoiding, not just nod along with the plan you've already half-decided on.

This isn't for you if what you actually want is someone to make the call for you, or tell you the "right" answer exists and you just haven't found it yet. It doesn't. What you can get is a sharper, faster, better-tested version of your own judgement — which, once you trust it, is worth more than a hundred more hours of research ever will be.

Key Takeaways

  • Name the real blocker. Decision paralysis is usually fear of being wrong, not a lack of data.
  • Run the premortem first. Declare the decision failed, list every reason why, before you commit.
  • Rank by damage. Fix the risks that would sink you, not just the ones that are easy to picture.
  • Decide, then adjust. Clarity beats certainty — certainty was never on offer.

You already know more about this decision than anyone else in the room. The premortem doesn't hand you certainty — nobody can promise you that. It hands you clarity, and clarity is what turns a decision you've been dreading into one you're actually ready to make.

If the big decision has been sitting open on your laptop for weeks, that's the conversation to have before you spend another dollar on it.

Saturday, October 10, 2026

Rising revenue and a shrinking bank balance usually mean the same thing: one account doing the job of four. A simple account split fixes it before it becomes a crisis.

Saturday, October 10, 2026

A coaching style that worked in your first month can quietly become the wrong one by your twelfth. The best coaches change how they coach you as you change.

Saturday, October 10, 2026

Managers now spend over a fifth of their working week in meetings, and senior leaders admit most of it is wasted. A fixed meeting rhythm fixes more than your calendar.

Saturday, October 10, 2026

Most SME owners set ad budgets and discount limits by gut feel. One number, worked out properly, tells you exactly what a customer is worth and what you can afford to spend to win one.

Saturday, October 10, 2026

Most small businesses pour their whole marketing budget into this week's sale. The research on 30 years of advertising says that is exactly the wrong ratio.

Saturday, October 10, 2026

Most SME owners are confident they will hit this year's goals, and most will not. The fix is not more effort, it is a plan that fits on one page and gets checked every week.

Friday, October 09, 2026

The share of owners blaming the economy for not planning long-term has tripled in a year. Here's the one-page plan that actually fixes it, not excuses it.

Friday, October 09, 2026

A new market, a new product line, a second location: most lose money the same way, by skipping the three numbers that would have told them how big the opportunity really was.

Friday, October 09, 2026

Most people picture coaching as a conversation. The sessions that actually move a business are a loop, repeated every week, until it becomes how the owner thinks.

Friday, October 09, 2026

A forty-item to-do list with none of the three that mattered finished is not a time management problem. It is a filter problem, and the Eisenhower Matrix is the filter.

Friday, October 09, 2026

A good salesperson gets four real conversations a day. A good presentation, given once, can reach four hundred. Here is why most SME sales teams never use it.

Friday, October 09, 2026

Customers do not leave because a competitor shouted louder. They leave because, in the exact moment they needed someone, your brand was not the one they thought of.

Friday, October 09, 2026

Most SME owners track one number: the bank balance. The businesses that compound track four, using Kaplan and Norton's Balanced Scorecard, and catch the problem before it ever reaches the bank account.

Thursday, October 08, 2026

Nearly half of NZ SME owners plan to raise prices this year. Only 4 percent of companies have a value proposition clear enough to justify it.