Thursday, November 05, 2026

Before you chase new customers, count how often the ones you have buy. Three numbers, one worked example from Kevin's Know Your Numbers training, and a 30-day test.

It's 11pm on a Thursday and you're still turning it over. Take the new premises. Fire the client who drains every Monday morning before you've had coffee. Launch into the second region. Drop the product line that barely breaks even. You've had the information for three weeks. You've run the numbers twice. And you still haven't pulled the trigger, because what if you're wrong, and it costs you the thing you've spent years building?

Here's what actually gets owners unstuck. Not more confidence. A five-question test built in 1979 for strategists running the world's biggest companies, that works just as well on a two-million-dollar business as it did on the ones it was built for.

I've made this exact mistake nine times over, in nine different companies I've founded or co-founded. The ones I regret aren't the launches that failed. They're the eighteen months I spent not deciding.

Why "Just Be More Decisive" Is Bad Advice

The advice SME owners get on big decisions is almost always some version of "trust your gut" or "just commit." That's the enemy here, not fear, not caution. Gut instinct built your business to where it is. It will not, on its own, tell you whether a decision is actually risky or just unfamiliar.

Bluevine's 2026 research into small-business stress found that 68% of US owners have delayed or avoided a major decision such as hiring or expansion in the past year, and 21% have done it four or more times (Bluevine, 2026). That's not a confidence problem shared by one in five owners. That's a missing tool, shared by most of them.

Porter's Five Forces: The Tool, In Plain English

Michael Porter built this at Harvard to answer one question before any big move: is this environment actually worth entering, defending or leaving? Five forces, five honest answers, no spreadsheet required.

  • Rivalry — how many competitors are already fighting for this exact customer, and on what: price, service or something you can't easily copy?
  • New entrants — how easily could someone else do what you're about to do, with less money and less risk than you're carrying?
  • Supplier power — who controls your costs, your stock or your people, and what happens to your decision if they move the goalposts?
  • Buyer power — how much leverage does the customer on the other side of this decision actually hold over your price and your terms?
  • Substitutes — what else could your customer do instead of buying from you at all, including doing nothing?

Score each one honestly, out of five, for the decision sitting on your desk. Most owners find the fear was pointed at the wrong force entirely. It's rarely the competitor they were worried about.

"What we achieved in the last 3 months working with Kevin would have taken 2 years. Kevin's assistance has been very inspirational to our staff. We have achieved changes and changes of thought patterns it could have taken 2 years in normal trading conditions."

— Chris, Global Culture

Why Owners Who Know This Still Don't Use It

Here's the real obstacle. Knowing the five forces exist doesn't stop you running them alone, at 11pm, with no one to argue the other side. You'll score your own business generously. You'll underweight the force that's actually inconvenient to admit. That's not a character flaw — it's just what happens when the person scoring the decision is the same person who has to live with it.

That's the gap a second, outside set of eyes closes. Not someone who tells you the decision is safe. Someone who's run this exact test on thirty-plus industries and will tell you honestly which force you're underscoring.

Key Takeaways

  • Name the decision you've been sitting on for more than two weeks, specifically, in one sentence.
  • Score it against all five forces — rivalry, new entrants, supplier power, buyer power, substitutes — out of five each.
  • Find the force you scored generously. That's almost always where the real risk, or the real opportunity, is hiding.
  • Decide on the basis of the scores, not the hour of the night you're thinking about it.

This isn't for you if you're after a guarantee before you'll move — no framework hands you that, and anyone who promises it is selling something else. It is for owners who are ready to make the decision properly, rather than not make it at all.

Run the five forces on tonight's decision and you'll likely still choose to act. But you'll know why, and that's the difference between a decision and a guess you got lucky on.

If the decision you're avoiding has been sitting there for more than a fortnight, that's the first thing we'd look at together.

Thursday, October 22, 2026

Get more from the link that limits your growth before you spend a dollar on it. A 14-day, no-new-spend plan for SME owners.

Thursday, October 22, 2026

Score eight links in your business from 1 to 5 and the weakest, earliest link is usually your constraint. A 20-minute self-check for SME owners.

Thursday, October 22, 2026

Referrals just became small business owners' #1 source of new customers — up from 65% to 83% in a single year. Here's the Dream 100 system that turns word of mouth into a repeatable growth engine.

Thursday, October 22, 2026

Roughly one in four founders report loneliness and isolation running their business. Here's what a coach actually does differently, and why the first session is rarely about strategy.

Thursday, October 22, 2026

NZ small business sales rose 8.6 percent this quarter, but growth ranged from 2.9 to 16.3 percent by industry. Here's the three-number check that tells you whether your growth is actually yours.

Thursday, October 22, 2026

Only 30 percent of business change efforts fully succeed. Here's the three-part diagnosis, borrowed from strategy academic Richard Rumelt, most owners skip before fixing anything.

Thursday, October 22, 2026

Close to six in ten of this year's US holiday shoppers are already buying, in October or year-round. Here are three sales moves to make this week before Black Friday arrives.

Thursday, October 22, 2026

77.6 percent of US consumers used AI to help with a purchase decision in the past six months. Here are three moves that make your small business visible when customers ask AI about you.

Thursday, October 22, 2026

54 percent of US business owners have no real plan, and only 11 percent have anything detailed. Here's the one-afternoon exercise that gives your business a sharper three-year direction than any spreadsheet.

Wednesday, October 21, 2026

Before you spend another dollar on ads, staff or software, find the one step that limits your growth. Here is a one-hour spend-gate test you can run this week.

Wednesday, October 21, 2026

ActionCOACH began in Brisbane, Australia. What does its story tell US owners about where good growth ideas come from, and how to test an outside idea in your own business?

Wednesday, October 21, 2026

SME owner confidence is climbing, but for most, revenue isn't following. Here's why time isn't your real constraint, and the three-step framework that finds the one that is.

Wednesday, October 21, 2026

49% of business owners question monthly whether running the business is worth it, a US survey found. Here's what changes when someone else is asking that question with you.

Wednesday, October 21, 2026

Nearly half of NZ SME owners are planning Christmas trading changes, MYOB research found, and most of it is a discount. Here's how to build memory before you build the offer.

Wednesday, October 21, 2026

46% of New Zealand business owners aren't paying themselves, Xero research found. Here's the Profit First fix that changes the order money moves through your business, not the hours you work.