Wednesday, November 04, 2026

Riding a feast-or-famine sales cycle with no idea who to chase? The CLV/CAC method turns a quiet month into a plan, not a panic.

It's 11pm on a Thursday and you're still turning it over. Take the new premises. Fire the client who drains every Monday morning before you've had coffee. Launch into the second region. Drop the product line that barely breaks even. You've had the information for three weeks. You've run the numbers twice. And you still haven't pulled the trigger, because what if you're wrong, and it costs you the thing you've spent years building?

Here's what actually gets owners unstuck. Not more confidence. A five-question test built in 1979 for strategists running the world's biggest companies, that works just as well on a two-million-dollar business as it did on the ones it was built for.

I've made this exact mistake nine times over, in nine different companies I've founded or co-founded. The ones I regret aren't the launches that failed. They're the eighteen months I spent not deciding.

Why "Just Be More Decisive" Is Bad Advice

The advice SME owners get on big decisions is almost always some version of "trust your gut" or "just commit." That's the enemy here, not fear, not caution. Gut instinct built your business to where it is. It will not, on its own, tell you whether a decision is actually risky or just unfamiliar.

Bluevine's 2026 research into small-business stress found that 68% of US owners have delayed or avoided a major decision such as hiring or expansion in the past year, and 21% have done it four or more times (Bluevine, 2026). That's not a confidence problem shared by one in five owners. That's a missing tool, shared by most of them.

Porter's Five Forces: The Tool, In Plain English

Michael Porter built this at Harvard to answer one question before any big move: is this environment actually worth entering, defending or leaving? Five forces, five honest answers, no spreadsheet required.

  • Rivalry — how many competitors are already fighting for this exact customer, and on what: price, service or something you can't easily copy?
  • New entrants — how easily could someone else do what you're about to do, with less money and less risk than you're carrying?
  • Supplier power — who controls your costs, your stock or your people, and what happens to your decision if they move the goalposts?
  • Buyer power — how much leverage does the customer on the other side of this decision actually hold over your price and your terms?
  • Substitutes — what else could your customer do instead of buying from you at all, including doing nothing?

Score each one honestly, out of five, for the decision sitting on your desk. Most owners find the fear was pointed at the wrong force entirely. It's rarely the competitor they were worried about.

"What we achieved in the last 3 months working with Kevin would have taken 2 years. Kevin's assistance has been very inspirational to our staff. We have achieved changes and changes of thought patterns it could have taken 2 years in normal trading conditions."

— Chris, Global Culture

Why Owners Who Know This Still Don't Use It

Here's the real obstacle. Knowing the five forces exist doesn't stop you running them alone, at 11pm, with no one to argue the other side. You'll score your own business generously. You'll underweight the force that's actually inconvenient to admit. That's not a character flaw — it's just what happens when the person scoring the decision is the same person who has to live with it.

That's the gap a second, outside set of eyes closes. Not someone who tells you the decision is safe. Someone who's run this exact test on thirty-plus industries and will tell you honestly which force you're underscoring.

Key Takeaways

  • Name the decision you've been sitting on for more than two weeks, specifically, in one sentence.
  • Score it against all five forces — rivalry, new entrants, supplier power, buyer power, substitutes — out of five each.
  • Find the force you scored generously. That's almost always where the real risk, or the real opportunity, is hiding.
  • Decide on the basis of the scores, not the hour of the night you're thinking about it.

This isn't for you if you're after a guarantee before you'll move — no framework hands you that, and anyone who promises it is selling something else. It is for owners who are ready to make the decision properly, rather than not make it at all.

Run the five forces on tonight's decision and you'll likely still choose to act. But you'll know why, and that's the difference between a decision and a guess you got lucky on.

If the decision you're avoiding has been sitting there for more than a fortnight, that's the first thing we'd look at together.

Monday, September 21, 2026

You paid for a website and a rebrand — but your Google Business Profile is what's actually deciding who gets the call. Here's how to fix it this week.

Monday, September 21, 2026

The order you say things in a sales call matters more than the words. Here's the pricing sequence mistake quietly costing SME owners their margin.

Monday, September 21, 2026

Working longer feels responsible heading into Q4 — but the data says your output actually falls past a point. Here's how to find your real ceiling.

Monday, September 21, 2026

Time who talks in your next coaching session. If it's mostly your coach, you're getting a lecture — not the accountability that actually changes behaviour.

Monday, September 21, 2026

Chasing wholesale and DTC at once usually means neither gets funded properly. Here's the Channel Mix Audit to pick a primary channel and actually grow.

Monday, September 21, 2026

26% of small business owners plan to spend $0 on marketing this month — and it's capping their growth more than they realize. Here's the Marketing Floor framework to fix it.

Monday, September 21, 2026

Most strategic plans are built on what founders assume customers buy — not what they actually say. Here's the one-week audit that closes the gap.

Monday, September 21, 2026

Most SME marketing still targets a customer persona sketched out years ago. Here's how to find out who's actually buying — and fix the mismatch.

Monday, September 21, 2026

Most SME sales proposals are built to impress, not to close. Here's the one-page format that gets buyers to yes faster.

Monday, September 21, 2026

If Sunday afternoon has become the least relaxing part of your weekend, it's a design problem, not a discipline one. Here's the fix.

Monday, September 21, 2026

Most owners choose a coaching format by budget, not by stage. Here's the test that shows which format actually fits your business right now.

Monday, September 21, 2026

Private label deals look like free growth — until they quietly cost you margin, capacity, and control. Here's how to protect your brand before signing.

Monday, September 21, 2026

New global research says 68% of small business owners now choose stability over speed — and that's the smarter growth strategy. Here's the 3-step Depth Audit to grow without breaking what you've built.

Thursday, September 17, 2026

Most growth strategies don't fail because the market changed — they fail because nobody tested the assumptions underneath them. Here's the four-question audit that catches the weak spot before it costs you a year.

Thursday, September 17, 2026

Your website, socials, and sales team may all be telling a slightly different story. Consistent brands see up to 33% more revenue — here's the one-page Message Map that fixes the drift.