Wednesday, November 04, 2026

Checking your banking app at 2am over an invoice that's two weeks late? You're not alone — and the fix needs a witness, not just a spreadsheet.

It's 11pm on a Thursday and you're still turning it over. Take the new premises. Fire the client who drains every Monday morning before you've had coffee. Launch into the second region. Drop the product line that barely breaks even. You've had the information for three weeks. You've run the numbers twice. And you still haven't pulled the trigger, because what if you're wrong, and it costs you the thing you've spent years building?

Here's what actually gets owners unstuck. Not more confidence. A five-question test built in 1979 for strategists running the world's biggest companies, that works just as well on a two-million-dollar business as it did on the ones it was built for.

I've made this exact mistake nine times over, in nine different companies I've founded or co-founded. The ones I regret aren't the launches that failed. They're the eighteen months I spent not deciding.

Why "Just Be More Decisive" Is Bad Advice

The advice SME owners get on big decisions is almost always some version of "trust your gut" or "just commit." That's the enemy here, not fear, not caution. Gut instinct built your business to where it is. It will not, on its own, tell you whether a decision is actually risky or just unfamiliar.

Bluevine's 2026 research into small-business stress found that 68% of US owners have delayed or avoided a major decision such as hiring or expansion in the past year, and 21% have done it four or more times (Bluevine, 2026). That's not a confidence problem shared by one in five owners. That's a missing tool, shared by most of them.

Porter's Five Forces: The Tool, In Plain English

Michael Porter built this at Harvard to answer one question before any big move: is this environment actually worth entering, defending or leaving? Five forces, five honest answers, no spreadsheet required.

  • Rivalry — how many competitors are already fighting for this exact customer, and on what: price, service or something you can't easily copy?
  • New entrants — how easily could someone else do what you're about to do, with less money and less risk than you're carrying?
  • Supplier power — who controls your costs, your stock or your people, and what happens to your decision if they move the goalposts?
  • Buyer power — how much leverage does the customer on the other side of this decision actually hold over your price and your terms?
  • Substitutes — what else could your customer do instead of buying from you at all, including doing nothing?

Score each one honestly, out of five, for the decision sitting on your desk. Most owners find the fear was pointed at the wrong force entirely. It's rarely the competitor they were worried about.

"What we achieved in the last 3 months working with Kevin would have taken 2 years. Kevin's assistance has been very inspirational to our staff. We have achieved changes and changes of thought patterns it could have taken 2 years in normal trading conditions."

— Chris, Global Culture

Why Owners Who Know This Still Don't Use It

Here's the real obstacle. Knowing the five forces exist doesn't stop you running them alone, at 11pm, with no one to argue the other side. You'll score your own business generously. You'll underweight the force that's actually inconvenient to admit. That's not a character flaw — it's just what happens when the person scoring the decision is the same person who has to live with it.

That's the gap a second, outside set of eyes closes. Not someone who tells you the decision is safe. Someone who's run this exact test on thirty-plus industries and will tell you honestly which force you're underscoring.

Key Takeaways

  • Name the decision you've been sitting on for more than two weeks, specifically, in one sentence.
  • Score it against all five forces — rivalry, new entrants, supplier power, buyer power, substitutes — out of five each.
  • Find the force you scored generously. That's almost always where the real risk, or the real opportunity, is hiding.
  • Decide on the basis of the scores, not the hour of the night you're thinking about it.

This isn't for you if you're after a guarantee before you'll move — no framework hands you that, and anyone who promises it is selling something else. It is for owners who are ready to make the decision properly, rather than not make it at all.

Run the five forces on tonight's decision and you'll likely still choose to act. But you'll know why, and that's the difference between a decision and a guess you got lucky on.

If the decision you're avoiding has been sitting there for more than a fortnight, that's the first thing we'd look at together.

Friday, September 25, 2026

FMCG value grew 3.4% in 2025 — but innovation volume fell 5.8%, propped up entirely by price. Here's the three-question test to run before your next product launch, so growth is real, not just repriced.

Friday, September 25, 2026

Most SME owners build next year's budget before locking next year's strategy — then wonder why the numbers don't add up. Here's the sequence that fixes it before Q4 planning starts.

Friday, September 25, 2026

Holiday spending has already shifted to October — and SME owners still planning a November launch are chasing demand that's gone. Here's the 10-week runway that gets ahead of it.

Friday, September 25, 2026

Most sales teams default to the same easy offer every time, leaving your highest-margin products unsold. Here's the Full Menu Selling framework that fixes it without a new script.

Friday, September 25, 2026

Recurring meetings that never resolve aren't a communication problem — they're a decision backlog costing your business real money. Here's the 3D Decision Rule that clears it.

Friday, September 25, 2026

Calling a coach only when something breaks isn't coaching — it's crisis management with a label on it. Here's why the Proactive Coaching Cadence delivers a stronger return.

Friday, September 25, 2026

Most SME growth ceilings are self-imposed, not market-imposed — built by founder control, outdated systems, and internal structure. Here's the Ceiling Test that reveals it.

Friday, September 25, 2026

Small business AI adoption hit 74% this year, with real ROI: $4,100 saved annually on scheduling and payroll alone. But the smallest businesses, who need the time back most, adopt it least.

Tuesday, September 22, 2026

NZ business confidence just held near a multi-year high — but ANZ's own August data shows profit expectations posted their sharpest monthly fall on record. Here's the three-step Cost-Profit Scissor test to check if your margin is keeping pace with your optimism.

Tuesday, September 22, 2026

Two businesses can grow 30% the same year and end up in opposite positions. Here's the Funding Source Audit that shows which kind you're building.

Tuesday, September 22, 2026

Hired a coach, saw a spark, then stopped renewing? The problem usually isn't the coach — it's the switching. Here's why coaching compounds.

Tuesday, September 22, 2026

Eleven hours worked, exhausted by 7pm — but how much of it actually moved the business forward? Here's the two-question Impact Filter.

Tuesday, September 22, 2026

Most lost sales die in the first four minutes, not on price. Here's the four-question Discovery-First Framework that fixes it.

Tuesday, September 22, 2026

If your marketing stops the moment you stop paying for it, you're only funding half the job. Here's the audit that fixes the balance.

Tuesday, September 22, 2026

Your 40-page strategy document isn't working because nobody can recall it. Here's the one-page, four-box plan that replaces it — and actually gets run.