Sunday, November 01, 2026

New 2026 research shows SME owners earning most of their revenue from repeat customers are nearly four times more likely to be profitable than those chasing new customers alone. Here is the simple shift that changes the number that matters.

Net -9% of small business owners reported higher sales last month. Net -19% reported higher profits. That gap is not noise — it is the story. NFIB's Small Business Economic Trends survey for August 2026, released 8 September 2026, shows profit trends falling more than twice as fast as sales trends across the US small business economy. If your top line looks steady and your bank balance still feels tight, this is almost certainly why.

Your Sales Are Not Lying to You. Your Margin Is Telling the Real Story

Most owners treat revenue as the health check for the business. It's the number on the bank statement, the number in the CRM, the number a bookkeeper reports first. It is also, according to NFIB's latest data, the wrong number to watch right now.

A net 31% of small business owners raised their prices in August — they did exactly what the textbooks recommend when costs rise. Profit trends fell anyway, and fell faster than sales did. Inflation concerns climbed to 16% of owners citing it as their top problem, tied with taxes for the top spot (NFIB SBET, August 2026). Pricing power alone isn't closing the gap. Something underneath the price increase — the real, line-by-line cost structure of the business — is moving faster than the price rise can cover.

This is the enemy: not a demand problem, not a sales team problem, but a blended-number problem. When you manage the business off one number — revenue, or even "gross profit" as a single lump — you cannot see which specific cost is eating the increase you just fought to win.

The Profit Lag Test

Here is the three-step check Kevin runs with every client who says "sales are fine, but I don't know where the money's going."

1. Chart your sales trend against your gross margin percentage — not gross margin dollars — for the last two quarters, side by side. If margin percentage is falling while sales are flat or growing, you have a Profit Lag. Most accounting software can produce this in minutes; most owners have never looked at it this way.

2. Test your price increases against your real input costs, line by line, not blended. A price rise that covers your average cost increase can still leave you exposed on your three or four highest-volume inputs — the ones actually driving the erosion.

3. Rank your costs by rate of change, not by size. The line item growing fastest — a freight surcharge, a subcontractor rate, a platform fee — is usually the leak, even when it's nowhere near your biggest expense.

"Kevin is an absolute powerhouse! He doubled our business's profits in the first month alone with lots more of his recommendations still to be rolled out."

— Curtis Hacon, Give A Sh!t

Why Owners Know This and Still Don't Do It

Almost every owner Kevin sits down with already knows, in general terms, that costs have crept up. What they don't have is a system that isolates margin by product line, service line, or customer segment on a rolling basis — so they manage on instinct and a single blended P and L instead. The other blocker is sequencing: pricing decisions, supplier renegotiations, and product-mix changes all get made in isolation, by whoever is closest to the fire that week, instead of through one accountable weekly review.

This is also where Simple-Growth's role has a boundary. Building the cost structure itself — the chart of accounts, the job costing, the line-item bookkeeping — is accounting and bookkeeping work, and it deserves a specialist. If you don't already have a management accountant or a strong Xero advisor doing this for you, Chartered Accountants ANZ and the Xero advisor network are good places to start. What Simple-Growth does is turn that data, once you have it, into the weekly decisions and accountability structure that actually move the margin — which is where the Simple-Growth System™ comes in.

Three Things to Check This Week

Pull your gross margin percentage trend for the last six months — not just this month's number. Identify your three fastest-rising cost lines, regardless of size. And ask, honestly, whether your last price increase was set by looking at real input costs or by guessing at what the market would tolerate.

Key Takeaways

  • Small business profit trends are currently falling more than twice as fast as sales trends (NFIB, August 2026: net -19% profit vs net -9% sales).
  • Price increases alone are not closing the gap — a net 31% of owners raised prices in August and profits still fell.
  • The Profit Lag Test compares margin percentage (not margin dollars) against sales over two quarters to catch this early.
  • Rank cost lines by rate of change, not size — the fastest-growing cost is usually the real leak.
  • A blended P and L hides the problem; line-item and weekly review systems are what surface it in time to act.

If your sales look fine and something still feels off, Kevin can help you find your Profit Lag before it costs you another quarter.

...and you become the owner who sees where your margin is leaking while there is still time to fix it.

Thursday, October 29, 2026

A business with four equal customers loses 25% of revenue the day one leaves. Here's the customer-concentration math most SME owners never run, and three moves to fix it.

Thursday, October 29, 2026

A lot of owners try the wrong format, see no shift, and decide coaching doesn't work for them. Here's what a peer room is actually good for, what 1:1 coaching is actually good for, and a 3-check way to pick.

Thursday, October 29, 2026

HBR's review of meeting research found about 70% of meetings kept employees from the work they were meant to enable. Here's Verne Harnish's meeting rhythm, sized for an SME before year-end.

Thursday, October 29, 2026

Reps close 2.9x more deals at month-end and lose 11.4x more margin doing it, one major study found. Here's why the plan is the problem, not the rep, and three fixes.

Thursday, October 29, 2026

45% of US consumers used AI for a local business recommendation this year, up from 6% last year. Here's why schema markup won't fix your AI visibility, and what will.

Thursday, October 29, 2026

Jim Collins found that companies which broke away from average performance could name, with brutal precision, what they could be best in the world at. Here's the three-circle test and the goal that pairs with it.

Wednesday, October 28, 2026

Big-brand positioning is a decision, not a budget. Five questions, a one-sentence position and a five-touchpoint audit you can run this week.

Wednesday, October 28, 2026

Which jobs should a US small business hand to AI first? Published US data, a five-check test and a 30-day plan to pick one job, track one number and keep the decisions that matter.

Wednesday, October 28, 2026

Most small business owners already believe AI works, but barely one in ten has invested in using it properly. Here is the simple ladder for turning casual AI use into real, compounding productivity gains.

Tuesday, October 27, 2026

Vet and allied health practices rarely have a clinical problem. Here is how to find the real constraint, keep patients returning and build a 90-day growth plan.

Tuesday, October 27, 2026

Most SME owners are fixing the wrong problem. Here's the 3-step method that finds the one constraint actually holding your growth back, before you spend another dollar.

Tuesday, October 27, 2026

A third of US small business owners say they don't know whether they have the tools — AI included — to grow next year. That's not a confidence problem, it's a visibility one, and it's fixable in an afternoon.

Tuesday, October 27, 2026

Confidence up a quarter, down the next, tariffs easing then tightening — waiting for certainty is its own decision, and usually the wrong one. Here's a simple way to keep deciding well when the ground keeps moving.

Tuesday, October 27, 2026

There's one role almost every SME owner has avoided filling for a year or more — while quietly doing it themselves instead. Here's the Who Not How framework, and the three-step test that makes the hire obvious.

Tuesday, October 27, 2026

They nodded, asked great questions, said it's exactly what they need — then disappeared. Here's why warmth isn't a buying signal, and the three-message sequence that gets stalled deals talking again.