Friday, October 30, 2026

Only 30% of US owners finished 2025 with profits above expectations, down from 57% the year before. Here's the real reason growing revenue stopped meaning growing margin.

Ask most SME owners where their business needs to be in twelve months and you'll get a number: a revenue target, a hire, a launch date. Ask where they need to be — personally — in three years, and the answer is usually a pause, followed by something vague about "having more freedom eventually."

A new survey makes that silence measurable. Exit Factor's October 2026 study of 1,104 US small business owners, fielded by Researchscape International, found that 57% are leaning on their business to fund whatever comes next in their life, and a third have taken zero steps to plan for it. Nearly two-thirds hold more than half their personal net worth inside the business. Only 15% have a formal written exit plan, and 47% say it still feels too early to think about it.

That's not a retirement problem. It's a vision problem — and it starts years before anyone thinks about selling.

The Problem: "Grow the Business" Isn't a Vision

Here's the enemy in this story, and it isn't the owner. It's the idea — picked up from a hundred LinkedIn posts and "hustle" accounts — that a vision statement is a company artifact. Something for the website. A line the marketing team drafts. Meanwhile the owner's actual life, the one the business was supposed to fund, never gets the same treatment.

So the business grows, sometimes impressively, while the owner's personal picture of the future stays exactly where it was five years ago: fuzzy, unscheduled, "eventually." The Exit Factor numbers show where that leads. Nearly two in three owners have the majority of their wealth trapped inside an asset they haven't actually planned around. Almost half say it's still "too early" to think it through, at an age and stage where, if the business is doing well, it absolutely isn't.

I've worked with businesses from startups to $100m+ turnover, and the pattern repeats at every size: a plan that starts with the business ("let's hit $5m") rarely survives contact with a bad quarter. A plan that starts with the owner's life, the income, the hours, the thing they actually want to be true in three years, gives every other decision somewhere to point.

The Framework: Build the Vivid Vision Before the Strategy

Cameron Herold, the entrepreneur behind 1-800-GOT-JUNK's scale-up, calls this a Vivid Vision, and combined with Jim Collins' idea of a Big Hairy Audacious Goal and Simon Sinek's "start with why," it becomes a genuinely practical tool rather than a motivational exercise. Here's the three-step version I run with Simple-Growth clients.

1. Start with the life, not the company. Three years from today, what does a great week actually look like? Hours worked, time off, what fills the days that matter. What personal income do you want the business to pay you, and what wealth do you want it to build? This question alone tends to take longer to answer honestly than anything else in a strategy session, which is exactly the point.

2. Picture the company in specifics. Not "bigger" — who the customers are, what you're known for, how people find you, the size and feel of the team, what finally runs without you in the room, the revenue and profit numbers. Push for figures, not adjectives. A vision with no numbers is a wish.

3. Anchor it with a why and a decade goal. One sentence on why the business exists at all, and one bold 10-year goal the three-year picture is a genuine step toward. This is what turns a daydream into a direction every decision can be measured against.

Done properly, this takes two pages, not twenty, and it should be short enough to put in front of your team.

"He really got our vision from the beginning and has been a huge help in putting together a clearer plan and strategy for the next five years. Working with Kevin D'Ambros-Smith has given us the space to pause and reflect, on where we are now, where we want to be and how we get there."

— Gabby Kirk, Papier Hq

The Execution Gap: Why Owners Skip This Anyway

Most owners aren't avoiding this because they don't see the value. They skip it because it's uncomfortable, unscheduled, and nobody is holding them accountable to finish it. A strategy document with numbers in it feels like "real work." A conversation about what you personally want from the next three years of your life feels indulgent, right up until you're the 47% who still says it's "too early," ten years in.

There's also a real boundary worth naming here: a Vivid Vision tells you what you want your finances and your exit to look like, but turning that into a sale structure, a trust, or a tax-efficient ownership transition is a job for a specialist, not a coach. Chartered Accountants ANZ and a commercial lawyer are the right people once the vision gets specific about money and ownership, knowing that boundary is part of building a properly supported business.

Quick Wins — Do This Before Your Next Planning Meeting

1. Block 90 minutes, alone, and answer the life questions above in writing, not in your head.

2. Write the company picture in present tense, as if three years from now has already happened. Specifics, not adjectives.

3. Share the one-page result with your leadership team before you touch next year's budget.

Key Takeaways

  • A business growth number is not a life vision — most SME owners confuse the two, and the business absorbs the owner's future by default.
  • 57% of US small business owners currently rely on their business to fund their next life stage, and a third have taken no steps to plan for it, per Exit Factor's October 2026 research.
  • Only 15% of US small business owners have a formal written exit plan, despite nearly two-thirds holding over half their net worth inside the business.
  • Build a Vivid Vision — a specific, numbers-based, three-years-out picture of both your life and your company — before you write another strategy document.
  • Treat the vision as the owner's job and the tax- or ownership-structure work as a specialist's job — know the boundary between the two.

Ready to build your own three-year picture instead of guessing at "eventually"?

Thursday, October 15, 2026

Some SME leaders are already getting a half-day a week back from AI. Here is the simple filter that decides what to automate, augment or leave alone.

Thursday, October 15, 2026

It was not the pitch that killed your last deal. It was the four weeks of silence after it. Here is the follow-up sequence most SME sales teams never build.

Thursday, October 15, 2026

Most SME marketing stops the moment someone buys once. Here is the Value Ladder that gives your best customers an obvious next step, and why 74 percent never get one.

Thursday, October 15, 2026

A growth plan with no diagnosis is just a wish list with a date on it. Here is the three-part test that separates a real strategy from guesswork, before your next budget gets signed off.

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Everyone in your industry follows the same playbook. Here is why fresh eyes beat it, plus a one-hour exercise to borrow a proven idea from another industry this week.

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Five lessons from McDonald's own history that a 20-person US business can copy, plus where systems stop and growth questions begin.

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Different industries hit different growth constraints. Find the Simple-Growth page written for your type of business, plus two free resources on loyalty and exit planning.

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Nearly a third of small business owners have never taken a full week off, and new 2026 data shows the ones working the longest hours are also the most likely to want out. Here is the three-question test for turning hours into real freedom.

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Over half of SMEs entering a new market in one UK study hit real problems doing it. The Ansoff Matrix maps the three safer growth routes most owners skip past first.

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

45 percent of business owners in one survey feel trapped running the business they built. Here's how the Theory of Constraints, pointed at the owner instead of the process, finds the real fix.

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

UK SME owners spend six working days a month on admin and 3.6 days on growth, one survey found. Dan Sullivan's Who Not How habit flips which question you ask first.

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Nearly half of SMEs in a 2026 survey had not raised prices since 2022. Here's the three-sentence script that makes the overdue price conversation simple instead of stressful.

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

76 of 100 B2B brands in a 2026 study fell into a credible-but-indistinguishable Sameness Zone. Here's the four-word positioning test, the Onliness Statement, that pulls a business out of it.

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Your revenue is up and your margin just fell anyway — here's the planning gap behind it. Four moves that put margin back on the same page as your growth target before next year's numbers are set.

Tuesday, October 13, 2026

A practical playbook for NZ construction and building products owners: the market, the real growth constraints, how to price and win work, and a 90-day plan.