Thursday, October 29, 2026

Reps close 2.9x more deals at month-end and lose 11.4x more margin doing it, one major study found. Here's why the plan is the problem, not the rep, and three fixes.

It's 11pm on a Thursday and the decision is still sitting open on your laptop. Hire the second salesperson, or not. Sign the five-year lease, or wait another quarter. Finally let go of the client who pays late and shouts first. You've run the numbers four times and you still haven't clicked save.

If you're stuck on a decision like that, the fastest way through it isn't more analysis. It's a fifteen-minute exercise called a premortem, run before you commit, not after you're already regretting it.

Nine times out of ten, what looks like "I need more information" is actually "I'm scared of being wrong, and gathering data feels safer than deciding." You're not lazy and you're not indecisive. You're human, and you're about to make the decision anyway — this just makes sure you make it with your eyes open.

Why You're Not Lazy, You're Scared

Here's the villain, and it isn't you: the idea that a confident owner decides fast and a careful one decides slow, so if you're stuck, something's wrong with you. That's backwards. A 2026 Bluevine survey of US small business owners found 68% had delayed or avoided a major decision — hiring, expanding, a big commitment — specifically from fear of getting it wrong. You are nowhere near alone on that laptop at 11pm.

I used to do this with words instead of business decisions. Early on I'd redraft the same email a dozen times before sending it, chasing a version with no risk in it. It doesn't exist. The work doesn't improve in your head — it improves once it's out in the world and you can react to what actually happens. The lesson cost me time I didn't get back: it can't work for you until it's in the public domain. A decision is the same. The fear doesn't go away before you decide. You decide, and then you deal with what the fear was actually pointing at.

The Premortem: Fifteen Minutes, Before You Commit

Psychologist Gary Klein published a simple fix for this in the Harvard Business Review back in 2007, called a project premortem. Instead of asking "what could go wrong?" — which your brain will wave off with "it'll probably be fine" — you assume the decision has already failed, a year from now, and work backwards from there. It feels uncomfortable. That discomfort is the whole point; it's what gets the real risks out of your gut and onto paper.

  • Declare it failed. Write one sentence: "It's twelve months from now and this decision was a mistake."
  • List every reason, fast. Give yourself five minutes. No editing, no "that's unlikely" — just every way it could have gone wrong.
  • Rank by damage, not just odds. A rare risk that sinks the business matters more than a common one you'd shrug off.
  • Fix your top two before you sign anything. Build the guardrail now, while it's still cheap, not after it's already gone wrong.

"Kevin's knowledge and intellect on all things business — no matter what industry it is — he just seems to find gems that you can focus on. I catch up with Kevin once a week and it is definitely the highlight of my week. He just sees different opportunities so clearly. I would not have considered the B2C market as an opportunity before working with Kevin and now it is a major focus for us. He has opened up so many new opportunities for us."

— John Roberts, Co-owner and COO, Oragene

Why Most Owners Run It Once, Then Shelve It

You can do a premortem solo, and it's worth doing even then. But the real gap isn't the framework — it's that most owners run it once, in their own head, with their own blind spots doing the marking. You already know the two or three risks you're quietly hoping nobody asks about. That's exactly where an outside pair of eyes earns its keep: someone who's sat across the table from a hundred decisions like yours and will ask the question you're avoiding, not just nod along with the plan you've already half-decided on.

This isn't for you if what you actually want is someone to make the call for you, or tell you the "right" answer exists and you just haven't found it yet. It doesn't. What you can get is a sharper, faster, better-tested version of your own judgement — which, once you trust it, is worth more than a hundred more hours of research ever will be.

Key Takeaways

  • Name the real blocker. Decision paralysis is usually fear of being wrong, not a lack of data.
  • Run the premortem first. Declare the decision failed, list every reason why, before you commit.
  • Rank by damage. Fix the risks that would sink you, not just the ones that are easy to picture.
  • Decide, then adjust. Clarity beats certainty — certainty was never on offer.

You already know more about this decision than anyone else in the room. The premortem doesn't hand you certainty — nobody can promise you that. It hands you clarity, and clarity is what turns a decision you've been dreading into one you're actually ready to make.

If the big decision has been sitting open on your laptop for weeks, that's the conversation to have before you spend another dollar on it.

Monday, September 21, 2026

"It's faster if I do it myself" is quietly capping your business's growth. Learn the $200-an-Hour Test to see what your delegation debt is really costing you.

Monday, September 21, 2026

Anyone can get certified as a business coach in a weekend. Almost nobody has actually built what they're advising you to build. Here's the Scar Tissue Test to tell the difference.

Monday, September 21, 2026

Winning deals and building compounding growth are not the same thing. Learn the Compounding Growth Audit to see if your business is actually building an asset — or starting from zero every quarter.

Monday, September 21, 2026

16% of grocery households now have someone using a GLP-1 medication — and they're buying less across your category, not switching brands. Here's the three-step Appetite Audit for your range before Q4.

Monday, September 21, 2026

Most SME owners compete by trying to be better than everyone else — and that's exactly why they're stuck. Here's the 3-step framework to become the only option instead.

Monday, September 21, 2026

You paid for a website and a rebrand — but your Google Business Profile is what's actually deciding who gets the call. Here's how to fix it this week.

Monday, September 21, 2026

The order you say things in a sales call matters more than the words. Here's the pricing sequence mistake quietly costing SME owners their margin.

Monday, September 21, 2026

Working longer feels responsible heading into Q4 — but the data says your output actually falls past a point. Here's how to find your real ceiling.

Monday, September 21, 2026

Time who talks in your next coaching session. If it's mostly your coach, you're getting a lecture — not the accountability that actually changes behaviour.

Monday, September 21, 2026

Chasing wholesale and DTC at once usually means neither gets funded properly. Here's the Channel Mix Audit to pick a primary channel and actually grow.

Monday, September 21, 2026

26% of small business owners plan to spend $0 on marketing this month — and it's capping their growth more than they realize. Here's the Marketing Floor framework to fix it.

Monday, September 21, 2026

Most strategic plans are built on what founders assume customers buy — not what they actually say. Here's the one-week audit that closes the gap.

Monday, September 21, 2026

Most SME marketing still targets a customer persona sketched out years ago. Here's how to find out who's actually buying — and fix the mismatch.

Monday, September 21, 2026

Most SME sales proposals are built to impress, not to close. Here's the one-page format that gets buyers to yes faster.

Monday, September 21, 2026

If Sunday afternoon has become the least relaxing part of your weekend, it's a design problem, not a discipline one. Here's the fix.