Wednesday, October 28, 2026

Which jobs should a US small business hand to AI first? Published US data, a five-check test and a 30-day plan to pick one job, track one number and keep the decisions that matter.

It's 11pm on a Thursday and the decision is still sitting open on your laptop. Hire the second salesperson, or not. Sign the five-year lease, or wait another quarter. Finally let go of the client who pays late and shouts first. You've run the numbers four times and you still haven't clicked save.

If you're stuck on a decision like that, the fastest way through it isn't more analysis. It's a fifteen-minute exercise called a premortem, run before you commit, not after you're already regretting it.

Nine times out of ten, what looks like "I need more information" is actually "I'm scared of being wrong, and gathering data feels safer than deciding." You're not lazy and you're not indecisive. You're human, and you're about to make the decision anyway — this just makes sure you make it with your eyes open.

Why You're Not Lazy, You're Scared

Here's the villain, and it isn't you: the idea that a confident owner decides fast and a careful one decides slow, so if you're stuck, something's wrong with you. That's backwards. A 2026 Bluevine survey of US small business owners found 68% had delayed or avoided a major decision — hiring, expanding, a big commitment — specifically from fear of getting it wrong. You are nowhere near alone on that laptop at 11pm.

I used to do this with words instead of business decisions. Early on I'd redraft the same email a dozen times before sending it, chasing a version with no risk in it. It doesn't exist. The work doesn't improve in your head — it improves once it's out in the world and you can react to what actually happens. The lesson cost me time I didn't get back: it can't work for you until it's in the public domain. A decision is the same. The fear doesn't go away before you decide. You decide, and then you deal with what the fear was actually pointing at.

The Premortem: Fifteen Minutes, Before You Commit

Psychologist Gary Klein published a simple fix for this in the Harvard Business Review back in 2007, called a project premortem. Instead of asking "what could go wrong?" — which your brain will wave off with "it'll probably be fine" — you assume the decision has already failed, a year from now, and work backwards from there. It feels uncomfortable. That discomfort is the whole point; it's what gets the real risks out of your gut and onto paper.

  • Declare it failed. Write one sentence: "It's twelve months from now and this decision was a mistake."
  • List every reason, fast. Give yourself five minutes. No editing, no "that's unlikely" — just every way it could have gone wrong.
  • Rank by damage, not just odds. A rare risk that sinks the business matters more than a common one you'd shrug off.
  • Fix your top two before you sign anything. Build the guardrail now, while it's still cheap, not after it's already gone wrong.

"Kevin's knowledge and intellect on all things business — no matter what industry it is — he just seems to find gems that you can focus on. I catch up with Kevin once a week and it is definitely the highlight of my week. He just sees different opportunities so clearly. I would not have considered the B2C market as an opportunity before working with Kevin and now it is a major focus for us. He has opened up so many new opportunities for us."

— John Roberts, Co-owner and COO, Oragene

Why Most Owners Run It Once, Then Shelve It

You can do a premortem solo, and it's worth doing even then. But the real gap isn't the framework — it's that most owners run it once, in their own head, with their own blind spots doing the marking. You already know the two or three risks you're quietly hoping nobody asks about. That's exactly where an outside pair of eyes earns its keep: someone who's sat across the table from a hundred decisions like yours and will ask the question you're avoiding, not just nod along with the plan you've already half-decided on.

This isn't for you if what you actually want is someone to make the call for you, or tell you the "right" answer exists and you just haven't found it yet. It doesn't. What you can get is a sharper, faster, better-tested version of your own judgement — which, once you trust it, is worth more than a hundred more hours of research ever will be.

Key Takeaways

  • Name the real blocker. Decision paralysis is usually fear of being wrong, not a lack of data.
  • Run the premortem first. Declare the decision failed, list every reason why, before you commit.
  • Rank by damage. Fix the risks that would sink you, not just the ones that are easy to picture.
  • Decide, then adjust. Clarity beats certainty — certainty was never on offer.

You already know more about this decision than anyone else in the room. The premortem doesn't hand you certainty — nobody can promise you that. It hands you clarity, and clarity is what turns a decision you've been dreading into one you're actually ready to make.

If the big decision has been sitting open on your laptop for weeks, that's the conversation to have before you spend another dollar on it.

Thursday, September 17, 2026

Most growth strategies don't fail because the market changed — they fail because nobody tested the assumptions underneath them. Here's the four-question audit that catches the weak spot before it costs you a year.

Sunday, September 13, 2026

FMCG suppliers just got scored on 38 retailer-relationship competencies — and the results reveal a growth capability gap hiding behind operational excellence. Here's the two-bucket audit to fix it before your next category review.

Thursday, September 10, 2026

82% of small business owners are confident about growth — but 53% say a lack of customer demand is their biggest obstacle right now. Here's the framework to tell which one you're building.

Thursday, September 10, 2026

Export feels like the natural next step for a ranged FMCG brand — but it's a different business, not a bigger version of the same one. Here's the validation sequence that protects you.

Thursday, September 10, 2026

A certificate proves someone studied coaching — not that they've built or fixed a real business. Here's the vetting checklist that actually predicts results.

Thursday, September 10, 2026

Your calendar isn't a record of what you value — it's a record of what you haven't said no to. Run the audit that shows the real gap and how to close it.

Thursday, September 10, 2026

Most stalled SME deals aren't lost to a competitor — they're lost to silence. Here's the Urgency Ladder framework that turns "went quiet" into a real answer.

Thursday, September 10, 2026

Your website works 24 hours a day, yet most SME sites haven't been touched in years. Run the five-minute audit that shows exactly where it's losing you customers.

Thursday, September 10, 2026

Most SME owners make their biggest calls alone, with no one qualified to challenge them. Here's how to build a "kitchen cabinet" that gives you real strategic pushback — without a formal board.

Wednesday, September 09, 2026

Revenue is climbing and you feel like you're winning — until you check what's actually left over. Here's the simple two-number habit that stops growth from quietly eating your margin.

Wednesday, September 09, 2026

Your accountant, a podcast, a mastermind group and a mate all just told you something different about your business. Here's how to audit that noise and consolidate around one voice that actually knows your numbers.

Wednesday, September 09, 2026

Every new hire without a system takes twice as long to become productive, and you end up re-explaining the same things forever. The 90-Day Ramp Map fixes that in four steps.

Wednesday, September 09, 2026

Your best salesperson might be the one quietly eating your margin. Here's how to audit and rebuild your commission structure so it rewards the sales that actually grow your business.

Wednesday, September 09, 2026

Most SME owners quietly go quiet on marketing right when customers are buying the most. Here's the simple plan to hold your ground through Nov-Jan without burning out your team or your budget.

Wednesday, September 09, 2026

That pricing review, that org chart, that product line nobody will kill — they're not neutral. Learn how to spot and pay down the strategic debt quietly taxing every decision you make.