Monday, October 26, 2026

Bain research shows winning a new customer can cost up to 25 times more than keeping one you already have. Here's the CLV/CAC discipline that flips where your sales effort goes.

Every November, a familiar ritual starts in boardrooms and kitchen-table offices across New Zealand and the US: next year's number gets set. Usually it's last year's revenue plus a percentage that felt ambitious in the moment. A widely cited UK survey of business leaders found 44% had missed their own earnings target at some point, and almost half missed it in the very first quarter of the year. If that's been your pattern too, the problem almost certainly isn't effort — it's how the target got built in the first place.

After founding or co-founding nine companies and coaching more than 200 businesses one-on-one, Kevin has never once seen a team miss a target because they didn't try hard enough. He has seen plenty miss because the target was fiction from the day it was written down.

The Target That Was Never Really a Plan

Here's the enemy: percentage-on-last-year planning. Take this year's revenue, add 15% or 20% because that number sounds motivating in a meeting, and call it the plan. It isn't a plan — it's an extrapolation, and extrapolations don't account for a market that's shifted, a team that's already at capacity, or an owner who's quietly run out of hours in the week.

A 2023 survey conducted by the revenue-intelligence firm Gong, reported in Startups Magazine (UK), found that more than half of business leaders said accurate forecasting mattered more because of economic uncertainty — yet most were still building those forecasts in a spreadsheet, dragging last year's line forward. The target wasn't wrong because people didn't work hard enough to hit it. It was wrong on the day it was set.

The Three Numbers That Actually Set a Realistic Target

Before you write down a number for 2027, run it past three checks instead of one gut feel:

  • Capacity ceiling — what could your current team, systems and cash actually deliver flat out, with no new hires and no new tools? That's your floor, not your target.
  • Market reality check — is your category growing, flat or shrinking right now, and is your plan riding that current or swimming against it? A 20% target in a shrinking category is a different bet than a 20% target in a growing one.
  • Owner bandwidth — how many of next year's hours are already spoken for by you personally? If the plan depends on you doing more of everything, it's not a growth plan — it's a wish with a deadline.

"I have grown my business 5x since working with Kevin. Everything Kevin told me to do was the complete opposite of what I had been doing. Working with Kevin has truly been a complete game changer."

— Richard, Chem Suppliers

Why Owners Keep Building the Same Broken Plan

Most owners already sense their target is soft. They build it the old way anyway, because the three checks above take an honest look at the business, and an honest look takes someone outside the business to run it properly. Inside your own head, the capacity ceiling always looks a little higher and the market always looks a little kinder than it really is. That's not a character flaw — it's just what happens when the person setting the target is the same person who has to live with the consequences of getting it wrong.

This is the exact gap a coach closes: someone in the room who has no incentive to flatter your forecast, and thirty years of watching which numbers hold up and which ones quietly unravel by March.

Key Takeaways

  • Replace "last year plus a percentage" with a target built on capacity, market direction and owner bandwidth.
  • Treat your capacity ceiling as the floor of the conversation, not an aspirational stretch.
  • Check whether your plan is riding your category's current or swimming against it before you commit to a number.
  • Bring in an outside, unflattering view before you finalise next year's target — not after it's already missed.

If your 2027 target is just last year's number with a percentage bolted on, Kevin will help you fix that first.

Be the owner who starts 2027 with a target built on real numbers, not a hopeful percentage.

Sunday, October 04, 2026

Owners feel busy all day and still don't move the business forward. The research says task-switching is the hidden cost - here's the Three-Block Day that gets the best hours back.

Sunday, October 04, 2026

Owners chase new leads every Q4 while a cheaper, warmer list of past customers sits untouched. Here's the four-step Win-Back Sequence and the real economics behind it.

Sunday, October 04, 2026

SME websites and pitches default to telling their own story. The research says customers skim past most of it looking for themselves - here's the StoryBrand framework that fixes it.

Sunday, October 04, 2026

Most SME growth plans default to out-competing everyone else on the same crowded turf. Blue Ocean Strategy's own data says that's the lower-profit path - here's the four-question grid that finds the faster one.

Sunday, October 04, 2026

Most SME owners blame a lost customer on price. New 2026 research says it is almost always one unresolved issue instead. Here is the three-step audit to find your real loyalty leak.

Sunday, October 04, 2026

Revenue is not the same as profit, and a small slice of your customer base may be quietly cancelling out your best accounts. Here is how to find out which ones.

Sunday, October 04, 2026

The coaching industry has more than doubled since 2016 to over 232,000 coaches. With that many choices, here is the single question that tells you who is worth hiring.

Sunday, October 04, 2026

AI is saving small business owners 10 to 13 hours a week, and most have no idea what they gained. Here is the four-question method for pointing AI at the hours that matter.

Sunday, October 04, 2026

You nailed the pitch and the buyer loved it, then the deal went quiet. The reason is usually a meeting room you were never invited to. Here is how to sell to a buying committee you cannot see.

Sunday, October 04, 2026

Customers don't buy products, they hire them to do a job. Here is the framework that explains why an inferior competitor keeps outselling you, and what to fix in your marketing today.

Sunday, October 04, 2026

Most SME owners have one growth plan: get more customers. There are actually four distinct ways to grow, and the cheapest one is usually sitting in your existing customer file.

Sunday, October 04, 2026

Small business confidence just rose, but growth expectations are falling for almost everyone. New 2026 data reveals the one decision separating owners still growing from owners just waiting it out.

Sunday, October 04, 2026

A 1 percent price increase lifts operating profit by an average of 11 percent, McKinsey's Global 1200 research found, far more than an equivalent rise in volume. Here's how to raise prices without losing your best customers.

Sunday, October 04, 2026

Some coaches build a business out of being needed forever. Here's the Graduation Test: three questions that reveal whether your coach is transferring real capability, or just keeping you on retainer.

Sunday, October 04, 2026

Most owners respond to a bottleneck by fixing something else entirely. Eli Goldratt's Theory of Constraints explains why that backfires, and documented case studies show a mean 69 percent lead-time reduction once the real constraint is found.